Steady Now

Barack Obama did very well last night. His gains among working class voters augur well for the contests to come. He now holds a solid if small lead in the delegate count. This is not inevitability. For the umpteenth time this primary season, we are rushing to judgment. The fundamentals of the campaign do not merit any irrational exuberance on the part of those of us who support Obama. The last seven contests were all uniquely suited to play to his strengths. We have had contests in Louisiana and Washington DC with very high African-American populations. We had Maryland and Virginia, which, in addition to having substantial black populations, also have a large proportion of upscale voters with the highest levels of education. We also had three caucus states, which almost always go for Obama. Not one of these states produced particularly surprising results Through a fluke in the primary calendar, they just happened in quick succession. Obama could defy demographics in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas, but it will be an uphill struggle. The contours of the race are roughly where they were on super Tuesday, the only difference being that Clinton will have to persuade a few more superdelegates to lean her way for victory. This isn’t anywhere close to being over.