Eyes on 2006: State Legislature Edition

I often reprimand pundits for focusing on big-name races to the exclusion of all of the many other complicated elements of politics. So it would be hypocritical of me to do a series on a short-term event (when I have said that is precisely what we do not need to focus on) without taking a look at the one area that may have the longest lasting impact on our nation. Most people's contact with this part of government is quite limited. We see the candidates lawn signs in median strips on the road and think to ourselves "who is that guy again?" Let me be clear: State legislatures may be unglamorous, but they are very, very important. The states, after all, have great powers, and the legislature is usually the most important organ of the state government. Remember the 2002 Texas redistricting debacle? Well, it never could have occurred had the Republicans not taken control of the state house for the first time since reconstruction. Should the Democrats come a handful of seats short of retaking the House this November, you can thank the 30% or so of Texas voters who bothered to show up and vote in an "unimportant" local contest in 2002. In two years time we have a Presidential election. States have extraordinary powers in determining election procedures, and even who is enfranchised, in their state. It is difficult to predict what will happen in elections for 99 separate state bodies. (Nebraska has a unicameral legislature) There are no polls to look to, after all. But my hope is that the Democratic mood permeates down to this level. The future of the country may hang on it.
Update: The Democrats made signficant gains in the state legislature, as in other areas. The Democrats have taken about 275 more seats across the country, and gained control over both houses in four legislatures and one house in four others. I will discuss this more in my first major post-election posting.

Eyes On 2006: Connecticut Edition

Ah yes. Connecticut. In so many ways, the political conflicts shaping up all over the country are exemplified by the Nutmeg state. There are three races of national significance in Connecticut. The three-way Senate race, the Second Congressional District race, and the Fourth District race. On the surface, Connecticut seems like a state comparable in its liberalism to its neighbor Massachusetts. But despite massive political majorities in the state legislature, and an electorate that reliably goes Democratic in Presidential races, Connecticut voters are deeply independent. Republicans control most of the Congressional seats, and have controlled the Governor's mansion since 1986. Connecticut has only supported the Democratic ticket nationally since the Clinton era. Any recent gains for Democrats in the state have less to do with demographics and more to do with the demise of the moderate wing of the Republican party. If the economic makeup of the state was a good political indicator, it would probably be more Republican than Wyoming. But these Republican moderates are not quite an extinct breed. Jodi Rell, Christopher Shays, and Rob Simmons all continue to hold office in the state of Connecticut. It is Shays and Simmons who may soon become politically extinct. In 2004, Diane Farrell came within 4 points of defeating Shays in one of the wealthiest counties in the United States, and she plans to defeat him this time around. Rob Simmons may be in even more danger than Shays. His seat is considered a "toss-up" by the NRCC. Then, of course, there is the race between Lieberman and Lamont, round two. Oh, there's a Republican also, but he has single-digit support. (Wish Schlesinger the best of luck, by the way. He can only take away votes from Lieberman) While the control of the Senate does not really hinge over this race (Lieberman will probably caucus with the Democrats if he wins) it is in many ways the most important. A Lamont victory will represent a major blow to the Washington establishment of pollsters and pundits that was allowed to call the shots throughout the nineties as the party's infrastructure withered away. That is really what this race should represent in the eyes of the American political class. But Connecticut has never been enthusiastic about party politics, and my bet is that come November, the voters are going to make their decision based on how they judge the personal merits of their Senator, and their Congressmen.