Tuesday, October 31, 2006

Eyes on 2006: State Legislature Edition

I often reprimand pundits for focusing on big-name races to the exclusion of all of the many other complicated elements of politics. So it would be hypocritical of me to do a series on a short-term event (when I have said that is precisely what we do not need to focus on) without taking a look at the one area that may have the longest lasting impact on our nation. Most people's contact with this part of government is quite limited. We see the candidates lawn signs in median strips on the road and think to ourselves "who is that guy again?" Let me be clear: State legislatures may be unglamorous, but they are very, very important. The states, after all, have great powers, and the legislature is usually the most important organ of the state government. Remember the 2002 Texas redistricting debacle? Well, it never could have occurred had the Republicans not taken control of the state house for the first time since reconstruction. Should the Democrats come a handful of seats short of retaking the House this November, you can thank the 30% or so of Texas voters who bothered to show up and vote in an "unimportant" local contest in 2002. In two years time we have a Presidential election. States have extraordinary powers in determining election procedures, and even who is enfranchised, in their state. It is difficult to predict what will happen in elections for 99 separate state bodies. (Nebraska has a unicameral legislature) There are no polls to look to, after all. But my hope is that the Democratic mood permeates down to this level. The future of the country may hang on it.
Update: The Democrats made signficant gains in the state legislature, as in other areas. The Democrats have taken about 275 more seats across the country, and gained control over both houses in four legislatures and one house in four others. I will discuss this more in my first major post-election posting.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Hmmm. Though the redistricting issue is important, I don't think it's enough to deem state legislatures as such. In terms of local issues, they don't have much more than bureaucratic budgetary authority. Plus, local elections are almost impossible to predict, as they are tangled with hundreds of years of legalities and machines. When in doubt, predict the incumbent.