Tuesday, February 28, 2006

A Republican Era? (Part One)

It has now become almost cliche to say that the United States has entered a republican majority political phase. In the past, political scientists have identified 3 or 4 decades of party supremacy followed by a realigning election. A classic example of a realigning election is 1932, the year in which Democrats swept every single (political) branch of federal and state government. Traditionally a realigning election has displayed very clear across-the board change from the local dog catcher to the White House. Before I stated three or four decades, but some claim a more exact figure: 36 years, which seems an impossibly accurate. But the logic is compelling:
1786-1824: Nation's founding to birth of Jacksonian Democracy
1860: The Republicans come to power only four years after their birth as a party, ending Democratic dominance.
1896: McKinley defeats Brian, in an election that changed not the party in power, but the ideological emphasis of both parties.
1932: Rise of the New Deal Democrats
This list is not without controversy. Some consider 1800, for just one example, to be a realigning election. It is important to consider whether realignment is even a legitimate concept at all. These dates may just be artificial benchmarks to give some shape to history. But any disagreements over those debates pale in comparison to the controversy over modern elections. Following the bizarre 36 year pattern, the next realignment date would seem to be 1968, followed by 2004. Indeed, many have suggested that 1968 was such an election. But the supposed Republican backlash that year did not manage to gain control over any part of government besides the Presidency. A good measure of a party's relative power is the five part measurement, looking at not only the Presidency and the two houses of Congress, but the governorships and control of state legislatures. 1980 and 1994 have both been suggested as other possible realigning years, but it was not untill 2002 (excluding a small time in 2001) that the Republicans actually had a majority or control in all five of the bodies of power previously mentioned. When looking through the long view, Republican claims seem less plausuble. The question remains though, what has happened in the last three decades?
-To Be Continued-

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Quite.

We should totally be emulating Luxembourg. They never have party dominance (except for a brief phase in the '70s), for they use inter-party coalitions. The majority Christian Socialist Party is in coalition with their only possible major contender, the Labour Socialist Worker's Party, so any rivalry is nullified.

It would certainly ease up the undue stress on our nation's fragile democracy.

The Quiet American said...

It is not a question of emulation, as you shall see in my next posting.