Well, the polls are clear. It seems almost certain that the Democrats are going to nominate another surefire loser in 2008. One thing pundits, voters, or even candidates themselves never seem to get is this: A Senate seat is a terrible springboard to the Presidency. There are numerous theories for why this is so, (nature of parliamentary leadership, voting records, etc) the the fact of the matter remains. Just look at the evidence.
US Senators who have obtained a popular vote victory in the race to the White House:
Warren G. Harding
Those who have tried: (Only in the general election, and who were Senators at the time!)
DeWitt Clinton
Rufus King
Henry Clay
Daniel Webster
Hugh Lawson White
Henry Clay (again)
Lewis Cass
John Bell
Stephen A. Douglas
Rutherford Hayes
Benjamin Harrison
Warren G. Harding
Robert LaFolette
John F. Kennedy
Barry Goldwater
George McGovern
Eugene McCarthy
Walter Mondale
Robert Dole
John Kerry
And who are the top four contenders for the Democratic Nomination?
By averaging together polling data, Wikipedia has come up with this list:
-Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)
-Senator John Kerry (D-MA)
-Senator John Edwards (D-NC)
-Senator Joseph Biden (D-DE)
It is not that none of these Senators can win, it is that it would be difficult for any of them to win. There are exceptions. John McCain (if he could win the primaries) is supposedly untouchable, and Barak Obama (in a few years time) would make a great candidate. But by and large, the Senate is the stepping stone into obscurity. Democrats hoping to take back the White House might be better advised to look to Eliot Spitzer in a few years. Albany has been a proven training ground for excellent candidates. (It gave us four Presidents, including both Roosevelts)
3 comments:
Ahem - to clarify, was not LaFolette a previous Governor? As a result, actually, he made a great candidate. His multiple runs were always interesting. It's now obvious that Harding messed with the votes.
But, that in mind, yes - Senators make horrible Presidents (or at least horrible candidates).
Yes, I believe he was previously a governor. But at the time he was a Senator. Of course that raises the question of whether being a Senator itself is somehow the problem, or the lack of executive leadership.
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